SOCIALISM OF THE XXI CENTURY IS STILLBORN.

Socialism of the XXI century did not take off.

Mrs. Kirchner talks, her husband rules.

Receiving Chavez's checks in Bolivia

Lugo and Chavez attend mass in Caracas.

Four years ago the German born ideologue living in Mexico, Heinz Dieterich, was recruited by Hugo Chavez to try to put some flesh into his vague slogan of Socialism for the XXI Century. Dieterich claims to have coined the term and even wrote a book about the subject. For a few months, working in Venezuela, he sounded full of enthusiasm about its prospects. Today he does not seem to be associated with Chavez any longer and writes long, somber articles, about the collapse of the Chavez drive for political supremacy in Latin America. The latest of his articles, dated June 13, written for the Venezuelan, radical leftist website http://www.aporrea.com/ carries the title: “Hugo Chavez, FARC and the probable death of Bolivarian anti- imperialism”. In this short essay Dieterich defines the Chavez’s 180-degree change of attitude regarding the Colombian narco guerrillas, FARC, as a deathblow to the Bolivarian revolution. Within the last weeks Chavez has gone from publicly siding with the FARC to asking them, also publicly, to abandon the armed struggle and free the hostages. He has also stated that the FARC has no further role to play in Latin America.
The Latin American extreme left is both indignant and confused about Chavez’s about face. Dieterich calls it “an unconditional surrender to the forces of U.S imperialism”. Dieterich now accuses Chavez of trying to become just a minor player within a broader U.S. imperial policy in the hemisphere. He now suggests that the only thing that could avoid total defeat for Chavez’s political project would be to ally himself with U.S. presidential candidate Barrack Obama. In his disenchantment Dieterich fails to analyze the reasons for Chavez’s sudden change of attitude. There is little doubt that, thanks to the information contained in the laptops of FARC’s deceased leader Raul Reyes, Chavez is in imminent danger of being exposed to the international community as a promoter of terrorism. In foreswearing the FARC Chavez is just trying to save his own skin. He has already asked Colombian President Uribe for a meeting to “patch up” the relations between the two countries, in an effort to make the hemispheric community believe that he has returned to the democratic fold.
However, he is paying a price for his chameleon-like tactics. All around him his allies of the extreme left look disoriented and are experiencing acute domestic problems, largely due to their association with Chavez and their adoption of his arrogant style of ruling.
In Bolivia the government of Evo Morales in is virtual collapse. As I write this, Morales has had to cancel a trip to Tarija, one of the Bolivian provinces, because the people of the province have surrounded the airport to prevent him from landing. Three Bolivian provinces have already agreed, by popular referendum, to become more autonomous from the central government and two more provinces could follow in their steps. They are, precisely, the five Bolivian provinces that contribute most to the generation of wealth in the country. Major financial scandals connected with Chavez’s money handouts to Morales have become public and this has further weakened the Chavez mini-me.
In Argentina, the Kirchners are going through a three-month long political and economic crisis created by their arrogant attitude towards the agricultural producers and the Argentinean middle-class. The speeches by Mrs. Kirchner are confrontational and have not helped to improve the conflict. She has chosen to ally herself with the “piqueteros”, the organized gangs that receive payment from the government to act, violently if required, against its adversaries.
In Ecuador, Rafael Correa is facing increasing opposition to his project of constitution, closely modeled after the Chavez Venezuelan constitution. The Constituent Assembly of Ecuador is also modeling itself after the Venezuelan Assembly that dissolved the existing democratic institutions in that country in 1999 and replaced them with Chavez’s controlled organizations. It has taken longer than it should, but many Ecuadorians are finally conscious that the Constituent Assembly is just a Trojan horse designed to change the democratic system of the country and turn it into an autocratic, socialist type of regime.
In Cuba the ailing Fidel Castro is witnessing, with resignation, how Raul Castro is starting to dismantle the restrictive policies of his failed revolution.
From Cuba in the north to Argentina in the south the political project of Hugo Chavez, financed by Venezuelan oil, seems to be floundering, due to bureaucratic incompetence and to the autocratic nature of the leftist leaders.
However, as ideological and political failures connected with the Chavez adventure pile up, two other countries in Latin America appear ready to follow in that path: Paraguay and El Salvador. These are countries where the desire to get rid of the incumbent government has proven more powerful than any fears of surrendering to the prodigal but failed demagogue. In Paraguay, the new President, Fernando Lugo, is already visiting Venezuela, paying his respects to Chavez, no doubt in exchange for some petroleum related handouts. In El Salvador Chavez is financing the former guerrillas, FMNL, in their efforts to obtain the presidency, trying to end the 20-year hold on power of the conservative ARENA party. As it happened in Venezuela in 1998, and later on in Bolivia and Ecuador, many people in those two countries demand change at any cost, since they feel they have nothing to lose.
In general, it seems clear that the Chavez adventure is nearing its end. It will take Venezuela two generations to come back to where it was before Chavez came into power. His influence on the hemisphere is losing momentum at a rapid pace, although he has contributed significantly to retard the progress of freedom and democracy in the region.