June 2, 2011.
Half a billion dollars in Pension Fund money is missing. Oil production is down over 800,000 barrels per day. Secret contracts with intermediaries for double the actual costs of drilling rigs. 180,000 tons of food rots in Venezuelan ports. And yet no one gets investigated -- much less punished -- on Venezuela's state oil company, PDVSA. "Perhaps some day we will be able to establish responsibilities for the waste of the better portion of the one trillion dollars received by Chavez during the last 12 years," says former PDVSA Board member Gustavo Coronel . "But today Venezuela is the land of impunity, the land of crime, a land of gangsters."
A few days ago I read about former presidential candidate John Edwards being investigated for misuse of funds related to his campaign. As the story goes, part of the money received to finance Edwards’ campaign seems to have been utilized to keep the secret about his mistress and his love child. The amounts of money involved are significant but not enormous and it could be argued that Edwards simply exercised “poor judgment”. What is important is that the U.S. justice is already at work.
In Venezuela, for the last five to seven years the Board of the state-owned petroleum company, Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), has been involved, directly from some members, indirectly from the others, in a gigantic Ponzi scheme in which some $500 million of the employee retirement fund have disappeared.
The whole Board is responsible for the loss of about 800,000 barrels per day of oil production; for the fraudulent certification of “proven oil reserves” in the Orinoco heavy oil region; for the irregular contracting, with a ghost company, of the offshore drilling barge Aban Pearl for twice the amount really paid to the owners of the barge; for the importing of 180,000 tons of food that later went to rot in Venezuelan ports but provided some of the members of the board with millions of dollars in criminal profits; and in numerous other corrupt practices that are well documented.
And yet, they have remained there, unmolested, all these years.
Last week, PDVSA ousted several of the members of its board. They got rid of the Finance Director, Eudomario Carruyo, linked to the Ponzi scheme; of the directors responsible for the food disaster, Luis Pulido and Fadi Kabboul; of the inept Gas Director, Carlos Vallejo and of Hercilio Rivas, the Director who had presided over the collapse of the Research Institute.
But, at the same time, two ineffective and corrupt Chavez’s cabinet members, Nicolas Maduro and Jorge Giordani, have been added to PDVSA’s Board, as well as Wils Rangel, the leader of the Chavez’s controlled worker’s union. None of these people will bring true added value to the company but will only accelerate its collapse.
No criminal sanctions have, so far, been announced against the outgoing bunch. We doubt there will be.
The main culprit, the president of the company Rafael Ramirez, continues at his job. He knows too much about his boss and he probably has kept the records that incriminate Chavez in some overseas safe box.
This is the difference between a democracy and a dictatorship. In a democracy, transparency is required and, sooner or later, everybody is subject to accountability. In Chavez ’s Venezuela no member of the regime is accountable. Perhaps some day we will be able to establish responsibilities for the waste of the better portion of the one trillion dollars received by Chavez during the last 12 years. But today Venezuela is the land of impunity, the land of crime, a land of gangsters.
Gustavo Coronel was on the Board of Directors of PDVSA from 1976 to 1979. He was Chief Operations Officer (COO) and acting CEO of the Corporacion Venezolana de Guayana (CVG), the $35 billion Venezuelan government conglomerate designed to exploit and run all of Venezuela's mineral, metal and mining operations, from 1994-1995. He was President of Puerto Cabello -- Venezuela's main port -- from 2001 to 2002.
Coronel was author of the Cato Institute study "Corruption, Mismanagement and Abuse of Power in Hugo Chavez's Venezuela" and was the Venezuelan representative to Transparency International from 1996 to 2000. In 1994, he founded Pro Calidad de Vida, an NGO promoting anti-corruption techniques in government and civic education for children in Venezuela, Panama, Paraguay, Mexico and Nicaragua.
You may also wish to read:
Coronel: Venezuela's Latest Half-Billion Dollar Scandal
jueves, 2 de junio de 2011
The Venezuelan-Iran axis of terrorism
An intimate relationship.....
Hatred and terrorism.
The main common denominator between Iran and Venezuela is the hatred of the United States held by both leaders, Chavez and Ahmadinejad, since there are no religious or cultural similarities between the two countries. Their common objective is the strengthening of a global political alliance against the U.S.
Hugo Chavez has visited Iran nine times, while Ahmadinejad has been in Latin America three times, always accompanied by members of the Venezuelan government. Hezbollah has established centers of ideological indoctrination and collection of funds in the Venezuelan island of Margarita. It has to be remembered that in 1992 Hezbollah was responsible for the bombing of the Buenos Aires, Argentina, synagogue, causing the death of 20 and wounding more than 200 persons. In 1994 another explosion in a Jewish community in Buenos Aires killed 80 persons and wounded 300. In both cases police investigations established the responsibility of Hezbollah.
In December 2008 Turkish authorities detained an Iranian vessel bound for Venezuela after discovering lab equipment capable of producing explosives packed inside 22 containers marked "tractor parts." This was probably one of several shipments of thi type.
Collaboration between Venezuela and Iran is in four main areas: Political/Military, Energy, Financial and Commercial.
POLITICAL/MILITARY
A. The main political objective is destabilization and terrorism of the U.S. and Israel, aligned with groups such as Hamas and Hizballah. A weekly flight from Tehran to Caracas brings Islamic terrorists to Venezuela, where they are given identities and go on north to Mexico, where they are trained by Mexican drug traffickers and aided to cross the border into the U.S.
B. Together Venezuela and Iran have established a $2 billion Fund to “help” Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua, in exchange for political influence. In June 1 of this year Ahmad Vahidi visited Bolivia as a guest of the Ministry of Defense of the country. Vahidi was the mastermind of the explosion in Argentina oin 1994, in the jewish community of Amia, that caused more than 80 dead.
C. Chavez has opened the doors of Latin America to the Iranian extremist government. With his help the largest recipients of Iranian funds have been members of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of America (ALBA), a highly politicized regional trade and integration organization created by Chavez. As of 2007, Iran had announced 19 projects for Nicaragua. Iran is thought to have been a major contributor to Venezuela’s nuclear energy research and development. By 2010, it had, according to Iranian-owned news source Press TV, carried out over 80 projects in Venezuela. In 2007 Iran invested 1.5 billion USD in various Bolivian industries. Since 2008, Iran has loaned Evo Morales, in Bolivia, at least 780 million USD. In 2009 Iran extended a credit line to Ecuador worth 40 million USD. Moreover, between 2007 and 2008, trade with Ecuador jumped from 6 million USD to an astounding 168 million USD. Ahmadinejad also promised to invest 200 million USD in Ecuador in years to come. In 2009, Iran’s credit line to Cuba was boosted to 500 million USD.
D. In April 2008 Iran and Venezuela signed a Memorandum of Military Cooperation and Iranian military advisers were sent to Venezuela (United Press International)
E. Altough this is a report that has to be further documented, Iran is planning, according to Die Welt to build a missile base in Venezuela. The German daily earlier reported that Iran and Venezuela signed an agreement last October to build the base. Now, citing “security insiders,” it says the two nations have agreed on the location for the base and have begun planning for it. It states that engineers from a construction firm owned by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards visited the site in February, accompanied by the head of the Guard’s air force. Iran reportedly will be deploying Shahab 3 rockets, with a range of 800 to 930 miles, Scud-B missiles, with a range of 180 to 205 miles, and Scud-C missiles, with a range of 185, 310 or 435 miles. This would leave America outside of Iran’s range. However, the Federation of American Scientists states that a modified variant of the Shahab 3 has a range of 1,200 miles. This would put Miami just within reach of Iran’s rockets. Once Iran has a missile base in Latin America, it will be relatively easy for it to upgrade the base as it upgrades its missiles.
ENERGY
In the energy sector Chavez promised to give Iran some 20,000 barrels a day of gasoline and, in fact, made some deliveries. This is the reason why the state company, Petroleos de Venezuela, has just been the object of mild sanctions by the U.S. State Department. Since Iran requires about 160,000 of gasoline per day, the Venezuelan gasoline supply was no solution. Venezuela has promised Iran to invest up to $800 million in the development of the giant iranian gas field PARS.
Another aspect of the Venezuelan-Iranian oil link is the Iranian presence in the Venezuelan heavy oil region of the Orinoco River. In this area Iran is simply obtaining much information from the Venezuelan oil industry without giving much back, since they do not have the technology or the capital to contribute effectively to the Venezuelan oil industry.
FINANCIAL.
According to former New York District Attorney Henry Morgenthau, 2008, the Iranians have set up a bank in Venezuela called the International Development Bank, an affiliate of the Iranian state bank Saderat. The main purpose was to launder money. By linking with Venezuelan banks that have branches in the U.S. they have been able to penetrate the U.S. financial sector and laundered, says Morgenthau, some $300 million in illegal funds.
COMMERCIAL
In the commercial sector Iran has established a car factory in Venezuela but, so far, there are few Iranian cars (they are old FIAT models) in the streets. A bicycle factory is rumored to be a center of political indoctrination. The exploration for Uranium is being done with help from Iranian personnel but this activity is probably less important than generally assumed.
.WHAT SHOULD THE U.S. RESPONSE BE?
The points listed below are taken from Backgrounder paper #2362, January 2010, by Heritage Foundation's Dr. Ray Walser. As a Venezuelan, I am in essential agreement with them, as they are not designed to harm the country but to weaken the regime that harms the country.
. Add Venezuela to the State Sponsors of Terrorism List.
Congress should pass a resolution calling for placing Venezuela on the state sponsors of terrorism list and the Obama Administration should promptly proceed with adding Venezuela to the list. While largely symbolic because of existing restrictions on arms sales and technology transfers, it would give the U.S. greater authority to monitor financial transactions with Venezuela. The U.S. should make sure that the full rigor of the law is applied to Venezuela's commerce and trade in order to prevent Venezuela from acting as a front for Iran or other terrorism-friendly regimes.
· Launch a Real Public Diplomacy Effort Against Chavez.
The U.S. is losing the battle against massive disinformation spawned by Chavez. If the Obama Administration wishes to preserve the security of the hemisphere, it must move to more proactive rebuttals with skilled public affairs efforts.
· Enhance U.S. Capacity Building to Counter Terrorism and Drug Trafficking in the Americas.
The threat posed by Chavez and his allies is far from overt. It lies in the asymmetrical contest that pits the lesser accumulation of threats, such as drug trafficking, arms smuggling, and money laundering, to erode U.S. power and influence.
· Improve Security for Friends.
The Administration should make clear its commitment to supporting and defending friends, such as Colombia, from either overt aggression or intimidation by Venezuelan military forces or indirect aggression through Venezuelan support for the FARC.
Conclusion.
Today the U.S. Congress is being much more proactive in this task, due to the new correlation of political forces. This is a good moment to increase the pressure on the regime of Hugo Chavez, since he is greatly weakened at home and abroad. In this respect the most militant U.S. congressmen are Connie Mack, Ileana Ross-Lethien and Richard Lugar.
NOTE: This information is taken mostly from existing Internet sources. There is nothing here that can be considered as confidential or propietary information.
.
.
Hatred and terrorism.
The main common denominator between Iran and Venezuela is the hatred of the United States held by both leaders, Chavez and Ahmadinejad, since there are no religious or cultural similarities between the two countries. Their common objective is the strengthening of a global political alliance against the U.S.
Hugo Chavez has visited Iran nine times, while Ahmadinejad has been in Latin America three times, always accompanied by members of the Venezuelan government. Hezbollah has established centers of ideological indoctrination and collection of funds in the Venezuelan island of Margarita. It has to be remembered that in 1992 Hezbollah was responsible for the bombing of the Buenos Aires, Argentina, synagogue, causing the death of 20 and wounding more than 200 persons. In 1994 another explosion in a Jewish community in Buenos Aires killed 80 persons and wounded 300. In both cases police investigations established the responsibility of Hezbollah.
In December 2008 Turkish authorities detained an Iranian vessel bound for Venezuela after discovering lab equipment capable of producing explosives packed inside 22 containers marked "tractor parts." This was probably one of several shipments of thi type.
Collaboration between Venezuela and Iran is in four main areas: Political/Military, Energy, Financial and Commercial.
POLITICAL/MILITARY
A. The main political objective is destabilization and terrorism of the U.S. and Israel, aligned with groups such as Hamas and Hizballah. A weekly flight from Tehran to Caracas brings Islamic terrorists to Venezuela, where they are given identities and go on north to Mexico, where they are trained by Mexican drug traffickers and aided to cross the border into the U.S.
B. Together Venezuela and Iran have established a $2 billion Fund to “help” Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua, in exchange for political influence. In June 1 of this year Ahmad Vahidi visited Bolivia as a guest of the Ministry of Defense of the country. Vahidi was the mastermind of the explosion in Argentina oin 1994, in the jewish community of Amia, that caused more than 80 dead.
C. Chavez has opened the doors of Latin America to the Iranian extremist government. With his help the largest recipients of Iranian funds have been members of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of America (ALBA), a highly politicized regional trade and integration organization created by Chavez. As of 2007, Iran had announced 19 projects for Nicaragua. Iran is thought to have been a major contributor to Venezuela’s nuclear energy research and development. By 2010, it had, according to Iranian-owned news source Press TV, carried out over 80 projects in Venezuela. In 2007 Iran invested 1.5 billion USD in various Bolivian industries. Since 2008, Iran has loaned Evo Morales, in Bolivia, at least 780 million USD. In 2009 Iran extended a credit line to Ecuador worth 40 million USD. Moreover, between 2007 and 2008, trade with Ecuador jumped from 6 million USD to an astounding 168 million USD. Ahmadinejad also promised to invest 200 million USD in Ecuador in years to come. In 2009, Iran’s credit line to Cuba was boosted to 500 million USD.
D. In April 2008 Iran and Venezuela signed a Memorandum of Military Cooperation and Iranian military advisers were sent to Venezuela (United Press International)
E. Altough this is a report that has to be further documented, Iran is planning, according to Die Welt to build a missile base in Venezuela. The German daily earlier reported that Iran and Venezuela signed an agreement last October to build the base. Now, citing “security insiders,” it says the two nations have agreed on the location for the base and have begun planning for it. It states that engineers from a construction firm owned by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards visited the site in February, accompanied by the head of the Guard’s air force. Iran reportedly will be deploying Shahab 3 rockets, with a range of 800 to 930 miles, Scud-B missiles, with a range of 180 to 205 miles, and Scud-C missiles, with a range of 185, 310 or 435 miles. This would leave America outside of Iran’s range. However, the Federation of American Scientists states that a modified variant of the Shahab 3 has a range of 1,200 miles. This would put Miami just within reach of Iran’s rockets. Once Iran has a missile base in Latin America, it will be relatively easy for it to upgrade the base as it upgrades its missiles.
ENERGY
In the energy sector Chavez promised to give Iran some 20,000 barrels a day of gasoline and, in fact, made some deliveries. This is the reason why the state company, Petroleos de Venezuela, has just been the object of mild sanctions by the U.S. State Department. Since Iran requires about 160,000 of gasoline per day, the Venezuelan gasoline supply was no solution. Venezuela has promised Iran to invest up to $800 million in the development of the giant iranian gas field PARS.
Another aspect of the Venezuelan-Iranian oil link is the Iranian presence in the Venezuelan heavy oil region of the Orinoco River. In this area Iran is simply obtaining much information from the Venezuelan oil industry without giving much back, since they do not have the technology or the capital to contribute effectively to the Venezuelan oil industry.
FINANCIAL.
According to former New York District Attorney Henry Morgenthau, 2008, the Iranians have set up a bank in Venezuela called the International Development Bank, an affiliate of the Iranian state bank Saderat. The main purpose was to launder money. By linking with Venezuelan banks that have branches in the U.S. they have been able to penetrate the U.S. financial sector and laundered, says Morgenthau, some $300 million in illegal funds.
COMMERCIAL
In the commercial sector Iran has established a car factory in Venezuela but, so far, there are few Iranian cars (they are old FIAT models) in the streets. A bicycle factory is rumored to be a center of political indoctrination. The exploration for Uranium is being done with help from Iranian personnel but this activity is probably less important than generally assumed.
.WHAT SHOULD THE U.S. RESPONSE BE?
The points listed below are taken from Backgrounder paper #2362, January 2010, by Heritage Foundation's Dr. Ray Walser. As a Venezuelan, I am in essential agreement with them, as they are not designed to harm the country but to weaken the regime that harms the country.
. Add Venezuela to the State Sponsors of Terrorism List.
Congress should pass a resolution calling for placing Venezuela on the state sponsors of terrorism list and the Obama Administration should promptly proceed with adding Venezuela to the list. While largely symbolic because of existing restrictions on arms sales and technology transfers, it would give the U.S. greater authority to monitor financial transactions with Venezuela. The U.S. should make sure that the full rigor of the law is applied to Venezuela's commerce and trade in order to prevent Venezuela from acting as a front for Iran or other terrorism-friendly regimes.
· Launch a Real Public Diplomacy Effort Against Chavez.
The U.S. is losing the battle against massive disinformation spawned by Chavez. If the Obama Administration wishes to preserve the security of the hemisphere, it must move to more proactive rebuttals with skilled public affairs efforts.
· Enhance U.S. Capacity Building to Counter Terrorism and Drug Trafficking in the Americas.
The threat posed by Chavez and his allies is far from overt. It lies in the asymmetrical contest that pits the lesser accumulation of threats, such as drug trafficking, arms smuggling, and money laundering, to erode U.S. power and influence.
· Improve Security for Friends.
The Administration should make clear its commitment to supporting and defending friends, such as Colombia, from either overt aggression or intimidation by Venezuelan military forces or indirect aggression through Venezuelan support for the FARC.
Conclusion.
Today the U.S. Congress is being much more proactive in this task, due to the new correlation of political forces. This is a good moment to increase the pressure on the regime of Hugo Chavez, since he is greatly weakened at home and abroad. In this respect the most militant U.S. congressmen are Connie Mack, Ileana Ross-Lethien and Richard Lugar.
NOTE: This information is taken mostly from existing Internet sources. There is nothing here that can be considered as confidential or propietary information.
.
.
Flujos ilícitos de dinero en la Venezuela de Hugo Chávez, 2000-2010
Un estudio de las Naciones Unidas hecho a instancias del Instituto de Integridad Financiera Global, con sede en Washington, estudió los flujos ilicitos de dinero en los países del tercer mundo, revelando que unos $6.5 billones (6.5 seguidos de doce ceros) se fugaron de esos países entre 2000 y 2009. El informe se titula “Flujos Financieros Ilícitos de los países menos desarrollados” y examina las razones que facilitan los flujos, da una idea de las magnitudes involucradas y avanza recomendaciones para controlarlos. El informe habla de sobornos, robos, coimas y evasión de impuestos como las vías más importantes para los flujos ilícitos en países exportadores de petróleo como, entre otros, Kuwait, Nigeria, Rusia y Venezuela. Los dos países donde esta práctica es más importante desde el punto de vista volumétrico son China y Rusia.
De acuerdo al informe los diez países con mayores volúmenes de flujos ilícitos de dinero son:
Dólares
China 2.2 billones
Rusia 427 millardos
México 416 millardos
Arabia Saudita 302 millardos
Malasia 291 millardos
Emiratos Arabes 276 millardos
Kuwait 242 millardos
Venezuela 157 millardos
Quatar 138 millardos
Nigeria 130 millardos.
En el caso de Venezuela, pensamos, un facto contributivo importante es la ausencia de transparencia en los manejos financieros del régimen de Hugo Chávez. La suma arriba citada para Venezuela representa entre el 15 y el 20 por ciento de los ingresos totales del país durante el lapso. Estos dineros han salido del país y se encuentran hoy depositados en cuentas de personeros del régimen, narcotraficantes, boliburgueses, contratistas de PDVSA, gestores en las compras de armas, toda una fauna de malhechores y hampones de cuello blanco o rojo.
Uno se siente tentado a hacer la siguiente cuenta, muy a grosso modo:
Ingresos totales del país durante 2000-2010: un billón de dólares (un uno seguido de doce ceros)
Dinero que ha salido ilicitamente del país: 180 millardos 18 por ciento
Dinero que ha sido robado y está en el país: 150 millardos 15 por ciento
Dinero utilizado en las misiones: 100 millardos 10 por ciento
Dinero utilizado en gasto corriente: 470 millardos 47 por ciento
Inversiones en infraestructura: 90 millardos 9 por ciento
Nota: aparte del dinero fugado, todas las demás cantidades son estimadas de manera intuitiva y no están basadas en estudio alguno. Se requiere un análisis cuidadoso de esta distribución. Alguien como José Guerra pudiera, quizás, llevar tal estudio a cabo.
miércoles, 1 de junio de 2011
Donde está el dinero acumulado por Gadaffi?
Algunos países ya están congelando estos activos....
Los activos de la llamada Autoridad de Inversiones Libias, léase Gaddafi y familia, sumaban al 31 de junio de 2010 unos $53.330 millones de dólares. Esta inmensa suma de dinero se hallaba esencialmente fuera de Libia, distribuída de la siguinte manera:
Millones de dólares
Efectivo 408
Depósitos 19.813
Acciones 5.225
Bonos 3394
Alternativas 3507
Subsidiarias 16.754
Otros 4155
Total, unos 53.330 millones de dólares.
Las acciones están en muchas empresas, sobretodo la ENI de italia, Siemens, BASF, Repsol YPF y pequeños montos en General Electric, Shell y ExxonMobil.
Los bonos son casi todos Bonos del Tesoro de USA.
El efectivo está en su mayoría en los bancos HSBC (unos $300 millones) y Goldman Sachs (unos $43 millones), en USA, Alemania, Italia e Inglaterra.
La mitad del efectivo en euros, la otra mitad en dólares.
Las inversiones están en un 60 por ciento en Europa, 30 por ciento en USA y un 10 por ciento en otras áreas.
Los activos de la llamada Autoridad de Inversiones Libias, léase Gaddafi y familia, sumaban al 31 de junio de 2010 unos $53.330 millones de dólares. Esta inmensa suma de dinero se hallaba esencialmente fuera de Libia, distribuída de la siguinte manera:
Millones de dólares
Efectivo 408
Depósitos 19.813
Acciones 5.225
Bonos 3394
Alternativas 3507
Subsidiarias 16.754
Otros 4155
Total, unos 53.330 millones de dólares.
Las acciones están en muchas empresas, sobretodo la ENI de italia, Siemens, BASF, Repsol YPF y pequeños montos en General Electric, Shell y ExxonMobil.
Los bonos son casi todos Bonos del Tesoro de USA.
El efectivo está en su mayoría en los bancos HSBC (unos $300 millones) y Goldman Sachs (unos $43 millones), en USA, Alemania, Italia e Inglaterra.
La mitad del efectivo en euros, la otra mitad en dólares.
Las inversiones están en un 60 por ciento en Europa, 30 por ciento en USA y un 10 por ciento en otras áreas.
Hugo Chávez está caído y creo que ya lo sabe
Una revolución enchinchorrada y embasurada está llegando a su fin....
Escuchen lo que dice sobre las sanciones de USA contra PDVSA, las cuales no han sido gran cosa: “Nosotros tenemos bajo la manga, y bajo la mesa, todavía infinidad… [no dice infinidad de qué] … No hemos jugado ninguna carta, la respuesta que se dio es la respuesta que había que dar, pero nosotros no hemos jugado ninguna carta”.
Que clase de respuesta es esta? No es una respuesta de dignidad ofendida. No es una respuesta estratégica. No es una respuesta coherente. Es un balbuceo.
La debilidad de esta respuesta indica la debilidad general de su situación política. Aunque muchos venezolanos crean que hay Chávez para rato, todas las señales objetivas apuntan al rápido deterioro de su régimen. Por ejemplo:
· La deuda externa sigue creciendo de manera galopante y está peligrosamente concentrada en manos de un país imperialista, China, el cual no vacilará en cobrarla en términos de nuestra soberanía nacional. Sin embargo, es una relación que tarde o temprano entrará en conflicto con los Estados Unidos, país que tiene más valor para China que Venezuela.
· Está poniendo casi todo el peso de su popularidad electoral en su anunciado programa de viviendas, el cual no arranca. Es muy probable que el fracaso de este programa se haga más y más evidente, a medida que nos acerquemos a las elecciones de diciembre 2012;
· La producción petrolera nacional continúa bajando y PDVSA no tiene dinero, gerencia o voluntad para hacer el trabajo de mantenimiento e inversión que le garantize al régimen el ingreso que requiere desesperadamente. De allí el endeudamiento galopante que se hace a través de esa empresa, deuda que monta ya a unos $70.000 millones, al incluír la deuda China de $32.000 millones. La empresa se viene abajo estrepiosamente, ahogada por la corrurpción y la ineptitud;
· En Guayana la situación es más que desesperada, caótica. Las empresas están arruinadas, no tienen caja para pagar a sus trabajadores y los conflictos laborales han llegado ya a la etapa de la violencia;
· La crisis eléctrica se ha acentuado y está fuera de control, a pesar del inmenso gasto que ha hecho el régimen, un gasto diseñado para atender emergencias y no para resolver los problemas sectoriales de manera estructural. No hay soluciónes estructurales a corto o a mediano plazo para esta crisis. Enfrentar la emergencia ha costado unos $2000 millones que están practicamente perdidos, con el agravante que buena parte de este dinero ha sido prestado por el BID y por la CAF y deberá ser pagado por los venezolanos;
· Lo que era un PetroEstado se ha convertido, más y más, en un NarcoEstado, en la medida en la cual altos niveles del régimen se han involucrado, directa o indirectamente, en el negocio de la droga o como aliados de narcotraficantes. La lista de Makled es impresionante e incluye a ministros (as), hijos de ministros (as), generales de variada importancia, contralmirantes, banqueros, militares de diversa graduación, eructadores, toda una fauna burocrática que ha convertido la vida criminal una fuente de importantes ingresos;
· El inicio del fin de la actitud tolerante del gobierno de Obama hacia Venezuela, obligado por el cambio en la correlación de fuerzas en el Congreso de ese país. A pesar de todas las braviconadas del régimen sobre su independencia y autosuficiencia, lo cierto es que depende hoy, más que nunca, en el dinero que le llega de USA pr la venta del millón de barriles diarios que le hace (volumen que ha bajado en unos 300.000 arriles diarios en los últimos años);
· La probable caída de sus amigos Gadaffi, ya, y Assad, mañana, el debilitamiento político de Ahmadinejad en Irán, la transición forzosa de Cuba hacia la democracia, los enredos de Morales en Bolivia, todo ello incide sobre su progresiva pérdida de capacidad de convocatoria internacional;
· El éxodo de sus ideólogos. Ya nadie de valor intelectual lo acompaña. En www.aporrea.com comienzan a salir artículos críticos del régimen, algo que parecía impensable hace escasos meses. Heinz Dieterich lo fustiga abiertamente. Ya nadie habla seriamente del Socialismo del Siglo XXI (en verdad, nunca se habló pero al principio tuvo algun impacto)
· La misma figura pública del comandante-presidente se ve empequeñecida, abogatada, renqueante. Sus apariciones públicas son fugaces y sin ímpetu. Aunque esto pudiera ser una condición transitoria, hay pocas dudas de que su capacidad de generar entusiasmo ha declinado.
Tengo la impresión de que, aunque esto no sea enteramente advertido por el grueso de la sociedad venezolana, ya ha comenzado una transición, por llamarla de alguna manera, hacia un nuevo escenario político. No excluyo la posibilidad de que el “chavismo” pueda jugar un papel, hasta importante, en ese nuevo ecenario pero creo que lo de la “revolución a la cubana” está esencialmente muerto y enterrado. Los actos arbitrarios que pretenden mantener esa trayectoria encuentran cada vez mayor repudio entre los venezolanos. La revolución ha muerto y lo que queda de ella es un país arruinado y un hombre cansado, obeso, en tareas de sobrevivencia política, ya sin ánimos de transformación radical de un país que tiene mucho de criticable, pero también tiene una fuerte vocación democrática que viene de regreso,” arrollando como é”.
Escuchen lo que dice sobre las sanciones de USA contra PDVSA, las cuales no han sido gran cosa: “Nosotros tenemos bajo la manga, y bajo la mesa, todavía infinidad… [no dice infinidad de qué] … No hemos jugado ninguna carta, la respuesta que se dio es la respuesta que había que dar, pero nosotros no hemos jugado ninguna carta”.
Que clase de respuesta es esta? No es una respuesta de dignidad ofendida. No es una respuesta estratégica. No es una respuesta coherente. Es un balbuceo.
La debilidad de esta respuesta indica la debilidad general de su situación política. Aunque muchos venezolanos crean que hay Chávez para rato, todas las señales objetivas apuntan al rápido deterioro de su régimen. Por ejemplo:
· La deuda externa sigue creciendo de manera galopante y está peligrosamente concentrada en manos de un país imperialista, China, el cual no vacilará en cobrarla en términos de nuestra soberanía nacional. Sin embargo, es una relación que tarde o temprano entrará en conflicto con los Estados Unidos, país que tiene más valor para China que Venezuela.
· Está poniendo casi todo el peso de su popularidad electoral en su anunciado programa de viviendas, el cual no arranca. Es muy probable que el fracaso de este programa se haga más y más evidente, a medida que nos acerquemos a las elecciones de diciembre 2012;
· La producción petrolera nacional continúa bajando y PDVSA no tiene dinero, gerencia o voluntad para hacer el trabajo de mantenimiento e inversión que le garantize al régimen el ingreso que requiere desesperadamente. De allí el endeudamiento galopante que se hace a través de esa empresa, deuda que monta ya a unos $70.000 millones, al incluír la deuda China de $32.000 millones. La empresa se viene abajo estrepiosamente, ahogada por la corrurpción y la ineptitud;
· En Guayana la situación es más que desesperada, caótica. Las empresas están arruinadas, no tienen caja para pagar a sus trabajadores y los conflictos laborales han llegado ya a la etapa de la violencia;
· La crisis eléctrica se ha acentuado y está fuera de control, a pesar del inmenso gasto que ha hecho el régimen, un gasto diseñado para atender emergencias y no para resolver los problemas sectoriales de manera estructural. No hay soluciónes estructurales a corto o a mediano plazo para esta crisis. Enfrentar la emergencia ha costado unos $2000 millones que están practicamente perdidos, con el agravante que buena parte de este dinero ha sido prestado por el BID y por la CAF y deberá ser pagado por los venezolanos;
· Lo que era un PetroEstado se ha convertido, más y más, en un NarcoEstado, en la medida en la cual altos niveles del régimen se han involucrado, directa o indirectamente, en el negocio de la droga o como aliados de narcotraficantes. La lista de Makled es impresionante e incluye a ministros (as), hijos de ministros (as), generales de variada importancia, contralmirantes, banqueros, militares de diversa graduación, eructadores, toda una fauna burocrática que ha convertido la vida criminal una fuente de importantes ingresos;
· El inicio del fin de la actitud tolerante del gobierno de Obama hacia Venezuela, obligado por el cambio en la correlación de fuerzas en el Congreso de ese país. A pesar de todas las braviconadas del régimen sobre su independencia y autosuficiencia, lo cierto es que depende hoy, más que nunca, en el dinero que le llega de USA pr la venta del millón de barriles diarios que le hace (volumen que ha bajado en unos 300.000 arriles diarios en los últimos años);
· La probable caída de sus amigos Gadaffi, ya, y Assad, mañana, el debilitamiento político de Ahmadinejad en Irán, la transición forzosa de Cuba hacia la democracia, los enredos de Morales en Bolivia, todo ello incide sobre su progresiva pérdida de capacidad de convocatoria internacional;
· El éxodo de sus ideólogos. Ya nadie de valor intelectual lo acompaña. En www.aporrea.com comienzan a salir artículos críticos del régimen, algo que parecía impensable hace escasos meses. Heinz Dieterich lo fustiga abiertamente. Ya nadie habla seriamente del Socialismo del Siglo XXI (en verdad, nunca se habló pero al principio tuvo algun impacto)
· La misma figura pública del comandante-presidente se ve empequeñecida, abogatada, renqueante. Sus apariciones públicas son fugaces y sin ímpetu. Aunque esto pudiera ser una condición transitoria, hay pocas dudas de que su capacidad de generar entusiasmo ha declinado.
Tengo la impresión de que, aunque esto no sea enteramente advertido por el grueso de la sociedad venezolana, ya ha comenzado una transición, por llamarla de alguna manera, hacia un nuevo escenario político. No excluyo la posibilidad de que el “chavismo” pueda jugar un papel, hasta importante, en ese nuevo ecenario pero creo que lo de la “revolución a la cubana” está esencialmente muerto y enterrado. Los actos arbitrarios que pretenden mantener esa trayectoria encuentran cada vez mayor repudio entre los venezolanos. La revolución ha muerto y lo que queda de ella es un país arruinado y un hombre cansado, obeso, en tareas de sobrevivencia política, ya sin ánimos de transformación radical de un país que tiene mucho de criticable, pero también tiene una fuerte vocación democrática que viene de regreso,” arrollando como é”.
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