VENEZUELA:
FROM COLUMBUS TO CHAVEZ IN ABOUT 15 MINUTES.
Minute 1.
SPANIARDS REACHING THE FUTURE TERRITORY OF VENEZUELA FOUND TWO MAIN TRIBES: ARAWAKS AND CARIBS. ARAWAKS WERE VERY FRIENDLY. CARIBS WERE CANNIBALS AND SIMPLY ADDED SPANIARDS TO THEIR DIET.
2.
SPANIARDS ARRIVED TO CONQUER, NOT TO SETTLE. THEY DID NOT ARRIVE IN THE MAYFLOWER BUT IN ARMOR AND HORSEBACK. THEY WERE LOOKING FOR GOLD BUT OUR GOLD WAS BLACK AND BELOW GROUND. IT WOULD ONLY BE FOUND 400 YEARS LATER.
3.
A CARIBBEAN, AN ANDEAN AND AN AMAZON COUNTRY, VENEZUELA IS A SMALL COUNTRY THAT HAS HAD A DISPROPORTIONALLY LARGE ROLE IN HEMISPHERIC HISTORY. BOLIVAR LIBERATED FIVE COUNTRIES THAT CAME TO HAVE, BRIEFLY, VENEZUELAN-BORN PRESIDENTS AFTER INDEPENDENCE.
4.
ANOTHER VENEZUELAN, ANDRES BELLO BECAME CHILE’S NATIONAL HERO. HE WAS AN EDUCATOR, NOT A MAN ON HORSEBACK.
5.
MORE RECENTLY WE HAVE HAD FOUR WORLD BOXING CHAMPIONS SIMULTANEOUSLY (1960’s), ELEVEN WORLD BEAUTY QUEENS, TWO MAJOR LEAGUE BATTING CHAMPIONS, A 27 YEAR OLD DIRECTOR OF THE LOS ANGELES PHILARMONIC. 200,000 YOUNGSTERS BELONG TO A SYMPHONY ORCHESTRA/CLASSICAL MUSIC PROGRAM STARTED ABOUT 35 YEARS AGO.
6.
IN 1975 VENEZUELA’s HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX WAS HIGHER THAN CHILE’S , MEXICO’S OR SOUTH KOREA’S . AN ABRUPT TRIPLING OF OIL PRICE IN THE 1970’s CONVERTED VENEZUELA INTO A PETROSTATE AND STARTED ITS SOCIAL AND POLITICAL DECLINE. BY THE 1990’S EVERYBODY WANTED A CHANGE. CHAVEZ GAINED THE PRESIDENCY PROMISING THIS CHANGE. (NOTE: NOT ALL CHANGES ARE FOR THE BETTER).
7.
CHAVEZ PROMISED TO END UNEMPLOYMENT, CORRUPTION AND SOLVE THE PROBLEM OF ABANDONED CHILDREN IN THE STREETS. RECEIVING A $750 BILLION OIL WINDFALL HE HAS FOLLOWED THREE MAIN STRATEGIES: POLITICAL CONTROL AT HOME, WITH THE HELP OF MASSIVE HANDOUTS TO THE POOR; USE OF OIL AS A POLITICAL TOOL TO GAIN FOLLOWERS IN THE HEMISPHERE (INCLUDING THE U.S.), AND, THE CREATION OF A GLOBAL ALLIANCE AGAINST THE UNITED STATES.
8.
AT HOME HE HAS DISTRIBUTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN HANDOUTS: FREE FOOD, TRANSPORT, EDUCATION, HEALTH SERVICES. AS THE CHINESE PROVERB GOES HE HANDS OUT FISH AT PEOPLE BUT DOES NOT TEACH THEM HOW TO FISH. AS A RESULT PEOPLE ARE AS POOR AS EVER AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HANDOUTS. HE HAS POLITICAL CONTROL OF THE SUPREME COURT, NATIONAL ELECTORAL COUNCIL AND NATIONAL ASSEMBLY. HE CONTROLS THE TOP MILITARY BRASS BUT NOT THE LOWER RANKS.
9.
HE HAS BEEN USING OIL AS A POLITICAL TOOL TO GAIN LOYAL FOLLOWERS IN THE HEMISPHERE. HAS HANDED OUT ABOUT $36 BILLION TO CUBA, NICARAGUA, BOLIVIA, ARGENTINA, EVEN TO THE U.S. ONLY TO CUBA SOME $16 BILLION IN OIL. HE HAS FINANCED POLITICAL CAMPAIGNS IN MEXICO, PERU, ARGENTINA, NICARAGUA, ECUADOR ND EL SALVADOR. FIVE OF HIS AMBASSADORS HAVE BEEN EXPELLED FROM OME OF THE COUNTRIES ABOVE FOR OPEN INTERVENTION IN INTERNAL POLITICL MATTERS.
10.
HE HAS CREATED A GLOBAL ALLIANCE AGAINST THE UNITED STATES THROUGH BILATERAL OR MULTILATERAL MEANS: ALBA, UNASUR, PETROCARIBE, FARC, IRAN, OPEC, HIZABALLAH, HAMAS. IRANIAN OR OTHER ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALISTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED TO TRAVEL TO VENEZUELA, OBTAIN FALSE DOCUMENTS AND GO ON TO THE UNITED STATES.
11.
SUCCESS OF THESE STRATEGIES HAVE RANGED FROM GOOD TO MODERATE. IN VENEZUELA HE HAS BEEN LOSING FOLLOWERS. LAST FEBRUARY HE WON A REFERENDUM WITH 6 MMM. VOTES. 1.5 MM. LESS THAN HE RECEIVED IN 2004, WHILE OPPOSITION OBTAINED 5 MM. VOTES, HIGHEST SO FAR. IN THE REGION, HIS SUCCESS HAS BEEN MODERATE: BOLIVIA, NICARAGUA AND ECUADOR ARE HIS STRONGEST ALLIES. ANTI-U.S ORGANIZATIONS REMAIN INCIPIENT.
12.
HIS CURRENT SITUATION IS WEAKER THAN BEFORE. OIL PRICES HAVE DECLINED SIGNIFICANTLY. OIL PRODUCTION IS DOWN ABOUT 800,000 BARRELS PER DAY SINCE HE ARRIVED IN POWER DUE TO THE POLITICIZATION OF THE OIL COMPANY. A 2009 FISCAL DEFICIT OF SOME $30 BILLION WILL PROBABLY FORCE HIM TO DEVALUE AND TO CUT DOWN ON HIS HANDOUTS. THIS WILL MEAN LOSS OF FOLLOWERS. FOOD SHORTAGES, POLITICAL AND SOCIAL UNREST AND AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE OPPOSITION LED BY COLLEGE STUDENTS ARE ERODING HIS POLITICAL POWER.
13.
OUTLOOK.
HE HAS AN EVEN CHANCE OF STAYING IN POWER UNTIL THE END OF HIS NORMAL TERM, IN 2012.
14.
THE UNITED STATES SHOULD TAKE A MORE PRO-ACTIVE POSTURE IN LATIN AMERICA. MONEY MIGHT NOT BE THE PROPER SOLUTION BUT, RATHER, INTENSE CULTURAL ENGAGEMENT: EDUCATION, SPORTS, ARTS. THE LONG CONNECTION OF VENEZUELANS, FOR EXAMPLE, WITH U.S. UNIVERSITIES HAS CREATED AN IMPORTANT CADRE OF U.S. DEFENDERS IN OUR COUNTRY.
Minute 15.
MY FAVORITE PROGRAM OF COOPERATION OF THE UNITED TATES WITH LATIN AMERICA WOULD BE ONE THAT WOULD TRANSFORM PEOPLE INTO CITIZENS. THIS CAN BE DONE THROUGH A SYSTEMATIC EFFORT OF CIVIC EDUCATION, IDEALLY STARTING WITH CHILDREN (5 AND OLDER), FOLLOWING UP WITH THEM UNTIL THEY EXIT COLLEGE. I HAVE A DETAILED MEMO ON THIS PROJECT THAT I CAN SEND ANYONE WHO IS INTERESTED.
FROM COLUMBUS TO CHAVEZ IN ABOUT 15 MINUTES.
Minute 1.
SPANIARDS REACHING THE FUTURE TERRITORY OF VENEZUELA FOUND TWO MAIN TRIBES: ARAWAKS AND CARIBS. ARAWAKS WERE VERY FRIENDLY. CARIBS WERE CANNIBALS AND SIMPLY ADDED SPANIARDS TO THEIR DIET.
2.
SPANIARDS ARRIVED TO CONQUER, NOT TO SETTLE. THEY DID NOT ARRIVE IN THE MAYFLOWER BUT IN ARMOR AND HORSEBACK. THEY WERE LOOKING FOR GOLD BUT OUR GOLD WAS BLACK AND BELOW GROUND. IT WOULD ONLY BE FOUND 400 YEARS LATER.
3.
A CARIBBEAN, AN ANDEAN AND AN AMAZON COUNTRY, VENEZUELA IS A SMALL COUNTRY THAT HAS HAD A DISPROPORTIONALLY LARGE ROLE IN HEMISPHERIC HISTORY. BOLIVAR LIBERATED FIVE COUNTRIES THAT CAME TO HAVE, BRIEFLY, VENEZUELAN-BORN PRESIDENTS AFTER INDEPENDENCE.
4.
ANOTHER VENEZUELAN, ANDRES BELLO BECAME CHILE’S NATIONAL HERO. HE WAS AN EDUCATOR, NOT A MAN ON HORSEBACK.
5.
MORE RECENTLY WE HAVE HAD FOUR WORLD BOXING CHAMPIONS SIMULTANEOUSLY (1960’s), ELEVEN WORLD BEAUTY QUEENS, TWO MAJOR LEAGUE BATTING CHAMPIONS, A 27 YEAR OLD DIRECTOR OF THE LOS ANGELES PHILARMONIC. 200,000 YOUNGSTERS BELONG TO A SYMPHONY ORCHESTRA/CLASSICAL MUSIC PROGRAM STARTED ABOUT 35 YEARS AGO.
6.
IN 1975 VENEZUELA’s HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX WAS HIGHER THAN CHILE’S , MEXICO’S OR SOUTH KOREA’S . AN ABRUPT TRIPLING OF OIL PRICE IN THE 1970’s CONVERTED VENEZUELA INTO A PETROSTATE AND STARTED ITS SOCIAL AND POLITICAL DECLINE. BY THE 1990’S EVERYBODY WANTED A CHANGE. CHAVEZ GAINED THE PRESIDENCY PROMISING THIS CHANGE. (NOTE: NOT ALL CHANGES ARE FOR THE BETTER).
7.
CHAVEZ PROMISED TO END UNEMPLOYMENT, CORRUPTION AND SOLVE THE PROBLEM OF ABANDONED CHILDREN IN THE STREETS. RECEIVING A $750 BILLION OIL WINDFALL HE HAS FOLLOWED THREE MAIN STRATEGIES: POLITICAL CONTROL AT HOME, WITH THE HELP OF MASSIVE HANDOUTS TO THE POOR; USE OF OIL AS A POLITICAL TOOL TO GAIN FOLLOWERS IN THE HEMISPHERE (INCLUDING THE U.S.), AND, THE CREATION OF A GLOBAL ALLIANCE AGAINST THE UNITED STATES.
8.
AT HOME HE HAS DISTRIBUTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN HANDOUTS: FREE FOOD, TRANSPORT, EDUCATION, HEALTH SERVICES. AS THE CHINESE PROVERB GOES HE HANDS OUT FISH AT PEOPLE BUT DOES NOT TEACH THEM HOW TO FISH. AS A RESULT PEOPLE ARE AS POOR AS EVER AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HANDOUTS. HE HAS POLITICAL CONTROL OF THE SUPREME COURT, NATIONAL ELECTORAL COUNCIL AND NATIONAL ASSEMBLY. HE CONTROLS THE TOP MILITARY BRASS BUT NOT THE LOWER RANKS.
9.
HE HAS BEEN USING OIL AS A POLITICAL TOOL TO GAIN LOYAL FOLLOWERS IN THE HEMISPHERE. HAS HANDED OUT ABOUT $36 BILLION TO CUBA, NICARAGUA, BOLIVIA, ARGENTINA, EVEN TO THE U.S. ONLY TO CUBA SOME $16 BILLION IN OIL. HE HAS FINANCED POLITICAL CAMPAIGNS IN MEXICO, PERU, ARGENTINA, NICARAGUA, ECUADOR ND EL SALVADOR. FIVE OF HIS AMBASSADORS HAVE BEEN EXPELLED FROM OME OF THE COUNTRIES ABOVE FOR OPEN INTERVENTION IN INTERNAL POLITICL MATTERS.
10.
HE HAS CREATED A GLOBAL ALLIANCE AGAINST THE UNITED STATES THROUGH BILATERAL OR MULTILATERAL MEANS: ALBA, UNASUR, PETROCARIBE, FARC, IRAN, OPEC, HIZABALLAH, HAMAS. IRANIAN OR OTHER ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALISTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED TO TRAVEL TO VENEZUELA, OBTAIN FALSE DOCUMENTS AND GO ON TO THE UNITED STATES.
11.
SUCCESS OF THESE STRATEGIES HAVE RANGED FROM GOOD TO MODERATE. IN VENEZUELA HE HAS BEEN LOSING FOLLOWERS. LAST FEBRUARY HE WON A REFERENDUM WITH 6 MMM. VOTES. 1.5 MM. LESS THAN HE RECEIVED IN 2004, WHILE OPPOSITION OBTAINED 5 MM. VOTES, HIGHEST SO FAR. IN THE REGION, HIS SUCCESS HAS BEEN MODERATE: BOLIVIA, NICARAGUA AND ECUADOR ARE HIS STRONGEST ALLIES. ANTI-U.S ORGANIZATIONS REMAIN INCIPIENT.
12.
HIS CURRENT SITUATION IS WEAKER THAN BEFORE. OIL PRICES HAVE DECLINED SIGNIFICANTLY. OIL PRODUCTION IS DOWN ABOUT 800,000 BARRELS PER DAY SINCE HE ARRIVED IN POWER DUE TO THE POLITICIZATION OF THE OIL COMPANY. A 2009 FISCAL DEFICIT OF SOME $30 BILLION WILL PROBABLY FORCE HIM TO DEVALUE AND TO CUT DOWN ON HIS HANDOUTS. THIS WILL MEAN LOSS OF FOLLOWERS. FOOD SHORTAGES, POLITICAL AND SOCIAL UNREST AND AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE OPPOSITION LED BY COLLEGE STUDENTS ARE ERODING HIS POLITICAL POWER.
13.
OUTLOOK.
HE HAS AN EVEN CHANCE OF STAYING IN POWER UNTIL THE END OF HIS NORMAL TERM, IN 2012.
14.
THE UNITED STATES SHOULD TAKE A MORE PRO-ACTIVE POSTURE IN LATIN AMERICA. MONEY MIGHT NOT BE THE PROPER SOLUTION BUT, RATHER, INTENSE CULTURAL ENGAGEMENT: EDUCATION, SPORTS, ARTS. THE LONG CONNECTION OF VENEZUELANS, FOR EXAMPLE, WITH U.S. UNIVERSITIES HAS CREATED AN IMPORTANT CADRE OF U.S. DEFENDERS IN OUR COUNTRY.
Minute 15.
MY FAVORITE PROGRAM OF COOPERATION OF THE UNITED TATES WITH LATIN AMERICA WOULD BE ONE THAT WOULD TRANSFORM PEOPLE INTO CITIZENS. THIS CAN BE DONE THROUGH A SYSTEMATIC EFFORT OF CIVIC EDUCATION, IDEALLY STARTING WITH CHILDREN (5 AND OLDER), FOLLOWING UP WITH THEM UNTIL THEY EXIT COLLEGE. I HAVE A DETAILED MEMO ON THIS PROJECT THAT I CAN SEND ANYONE WHO IS INTERESTED.
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