Letter on Venezuela to a U.S. friend

DEAR BILL:

I ATTACH THE SUMMARY THAT YOU REQUESTED ON THE VENEZUELAN CURRENT SITUATION. I HOPE IT HELPS YOU ON YOUR UNIVERSITY LECTURES ON LATIN AMERICA IN THE XXI CENTURY. WHAT I ATTACH IS NOT ALL OF THE TRUTH, THERE IS MUCH MORE, BUT EVERYTHING I SAY IS TRUE TO THE BEST OF MY KNOWLEDGE AND CAN BE FURTHER DOCUMENTED, IF YOU NEED IT.

                                                                    VENEZUELA 2015

VENEZUELA TODAY IS A DECLINING PETROSTATE AND A FLOURISHING NARCO STATE. GOVERNMENT AND ARMED FORCES ARE ACTIVELY ENGAGED IN CONTRABAND OF OIL PRODUCTS AND FOODSTUFF TO NEIGHBORING COLOMBIA. OIL, DRUGS AND CONTRABAND ARE THE THREE MAIN INDUSTRIES IN VENEZUELA.

DURING THE LAST 15 YEARS THE COUNTRY HAS RECEIVED A TOTAL INCOME OF SOME 1.7 TRILLION DOLLARS AND, IN ADDITION, HAS MANAGED TO ACQUIRE A NATIONAL DEBT OF SOME $230 BILLION. THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN THE COUNTRY TO SHOW FOR THIS MONEY, AS THERE IS NO NEW INFRASTRUCTURE AND POVERTY INDICES ARE ESSENTIALLY AT THE SAME LEVELS OF 1998.   FORMER MINISTER OF EDUCATION, HECTOR RODRIGUEZ, RECENTLY SAID THAT “THE GOVERNMENT CANNOT AFFORD TO TAKE THE VENEZUELAN POOR OUT OF POVERTY BECAUSE THEY WOULD THEN JOIN THE RANKS OF THE OPPOSITION”. VER: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7jb4koFi1M . AN ENGINEER’S BASIC SALARY HAS GONE FROM $20 AN HOUR IN 2013 TO LESS THAN ONE DOLLAR AN HOUR IN 2015, SEE: https://snt146.mail.live.com/mail/ViewOfficePreview.aspx?messageid=mgSr-zf3pk5RGl3wAiZMIKqg2&folderid=flinbox&attindex=0&cp=-1&attdepth=0&n=40895993

GOVERNANCE IS PRACTICALLY NON-EXISTENT. PUBLIC SERVICES ARE SCARCE AND OF LOW QUALITY, ESPECIALLY ELECTRICITY, FOOD AND MEDICAL SUPPLIES AND ATTENTION. ELECTRICAL FAILURES CAN COVER 18 OR MORE STATES SIMULTANEOUSLY. SEE: http://www.soberania.org/2015/09/09/el-sistema-electrico-venezolano-esta-en-manos-de-dios/

PETROLEOS DE VENEZUELA, THE STATE OIL COMPANY, IS PRODUCING HALF A MILLION BARRELS PER DAY LESS THAN 15 YEARS AGO, ALTHOUGH IT NOW HAS SIX TIMES MORE EMPLOYEES (160,000). THE COMPANY IS IMPORTING OIL PRODUCTS FROM THE U.S., INCLUDING SOME 35,000 BARRELS OF GASOLINE AND RELATED COMPUNDS. SEE: http://ensec.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=371:venezuela-chavez-and-pdvsas-oil-woes&catid=128:issue-content&Itemid=402 FOR A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF PDVSA.

IN AUGUST OF THIS YEAR THE COUNTRY HAS 78,000 NEW CASES OF MALARIA AND THERE ARE NO ADEQUATE CANCER TREATING EQUIPMENT OR DRUG SUPPLIES. THE MAIN REASON FOR THIS WAS THAT THE FORMER MINISTER OF HEALTH, MARIA EUGENIA SADER, USED THE MONEY FOR POLTICAL AND PERSONAL PURPOSES. SEE: http://www.el-nacional.com/sociedad/expediente-Eugenia-Sader_0_431956930.html

DUE TO AN INFLATION RATE THAT REACHED 200% IN AUGUST OF THIS YEAR AND THE TRAGIC SCARCITY OF FOOD AND MEDICINES VENEZUELA HAS BEEN RANKED NUMBER ONE AMONG 108 COUNTRIES IN THE LATEST MISERY INDEX OF CATO INTITUTE. SEE:  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-02/the-15-most-miserable-economies-in-the-world

PRIORITIES ARE UPSIDE DOWN. PRESIDENT MADURO HAS DECICED TO ORDER 12 NEW SUKHOI FIGHTER PLANES, AT A COST OF $42 MILLION EACH, INSTEAD OF ATTENDING TO THE CRITICAL NEEDS OF THE VENEZUELAN PEOPLE. SEE: http://sputniknews.com/military/20150921/1027280758.html

THE LEVEL OF CORRUPTION IN THE COUNTRY IS THE HIGHEST IN HISTORY. NO LESS THAN $200 BILLION OF NATIONAL INCOME HAS ENDED IN THE POCKETS OF GOVERNMENT MEMBERS, FRIENDS, CONTRACTORS AND IDEOLOGICALLY FRIENDLY COUNTRIES ALL OVER THE WORLD, INCLUDING CUBA, BOLIVIA, BRAZIL, ARGENTINA AND RUSSIA. SEE: http://linkis.com/q34I4

CORRUPTION IS SYSTEMIC BUT PREDOMINANTLY CONCENTRATED IN FOUR SECTORS OF THE STATE: THE PRESIDENCY, THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE, PDVSA AND THE ARMED FORCES, EACH ONE WITH ITS SPECIALTY: POLITICAL CORUPTION AT THE PRESIDENCY; MONEY LAUNDERING AND EXCHANGE CONTROL FRAUD AT THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE; CONTRACTING WITH KICKBACKS AND CONTRABAND OF OIL AT PDVSA AND DRUG TRAFFICKING AND LARGE SCALE CONTRABAND AT THE ARMED FORCES. SEE:  http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/four-hotbeds-corruption-venezuela

SUCH A REGIME CANNOT SURRENDER POWER DEMOCRATICALLY.THE DECEMBER 6 ELECTIONS ARE ALREADY FRAUDULENT. FRAUD STARTED BEFORE THE EVENT AND WILL CONTINUE IN DIFFERENT FORMS AT THE EVENT AND AFTER THE EVENT. THE ELECTORAL BOARD REPRESENTS THE INTERESTS OF THE GOVERNMENT AND ACTIVELY ENGAGES IN ALL KINDS OF ILLEGAL ACTIVITIES: CHANGING THE RULES OF THE GAME; BANNING OPPOSITION CANDIDATES FROM RUNNING AND IMPRISONING OTHERS; GERRYMANDERING; PLACING GRAPHICALLY CONFUSING CARDS NEXT TO THE OPPOSITION CARD IN THE ELECTORAL BALLOT; DECREEING A STATE OF EMERGENCY IN BORDER AREAS WHERE THE OPPOSITION IS STRONG; REFUSAL TO ACCEPT INDEPENDENT INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS. SEE:  http://www.elnuevoherald.com/noticias/mundo/america-latina/venezuela-es/article35263344.html  AND http://www.el-nacional.com/GDA/Ex-presidentes-observacion-elecciones-Venezuela_0_707329364.html

THIS FRAUD COULD LEAD TO CIVIL WAR.

                                                                     WHAT CAN WE DO?

 WE HAVE TO GO TO VOTE MASSIVELY AND EXERCISE ALL CONTROL AS WE CAN DURING THE EVENT. I AM NOT OPTIMISTIC. THEREFORE I ADVOCATE THE FORMATION OF A UNITED NATIONAL FRONT THAT CAN BE STRUCTURED WITH THE EXPLICIT OBJECTIVE OF GETTING RID OF THIS GOVERNMENT, USING ALL LEGAL AVAILABLE TOOLS TO DO, INCLUDING MASSIVE CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE, STREET PROTESTS, MARCHES, A NATIONAL, INDEFINITE STRIKE AND OPEN AND CONTINUOUS CALLS FOR THE OUSTING OF THE REGIME, AS DEMANDED BY ARTICLE 350 OF THE EXISTING VENEZUELAN CONSTITUTION. I WOULD BE CALLING FOR OPEN REBELLION.

                                                   WHAT CAN THE U.S. DO?

THERE ARE SEVERAL THINGS THE U.S. COULD DO BUT MY GUESS IS THAT IT WILL NOT DO ANY OF THEM DURING THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION, BECAUSE A CHANGE IN GOVERNMENT IN VENEZUELA  WILL MEAN CUBA BEING CUT OFF FROM VENEZUELAN OIL, WITH ALL ITS POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS. CUBA IS MORE IMPORTANT TO OBAMA THAN VENEZUELA IS.

                                                      WHAT IT SHOULD DO

THE U.S. COULD EXERT MUCH GREATER PRESSURE ON THE VENEZUELAN REGIME THROUGH THE OAS AND BY DIRECT ARM TWISTING DIPLOMACY. THE REGIME IS DYING. GIVE IT A PUSH.

IN THE OAS THERE IS AN INTER AMERICAN DEMOCRATIC CHARTER THAN CAN AND SHOULD BE USED TO IMPOSE SANCTIONS ON THE VENEZUELAN REGIME. BUT SO FAR THE POLITICAL LEADERSHIP OF THE REGION HAS BEHAVED LIKE THE MAN WHO, FINDING HIS WIFE MAKING LOVE TO THE PLUMBER IN THE COUCH OF THE LIVING ROOM, SOLVES THE PROBLEM BY SELLING THE COUCH.

SINCE THESE LEADERS HAVE RECEIVED MONEY, CONTRACTS AND OIL FROM VENEZUELA THEY KEEP SILENT ABOUT THE VENEZUELAN ATROCITIES, INVOKING THE PRINCIPLE OF NON- INTERVENTION, THE EQUIVALENT OF SELLING THE COUCH.  

 TO INVOKE THE PRINCIPLE OF NON-INTERVENTION WHEN YOUR NEIGHBOR IS BEING MURDERED IS ONE OF THE GREATEST CRIMES COMMITTED BY THE POLITICAL LEADERSHIP OF THE REGION.  

best regards,

Gustavo