About two weeks ago the editor of Caracas
Chronicles, Quico Toro, told the readers of this excellent site that he was
leaving the blog and interrupting his analysis of the Venezuelan situation in
order to go to South Sudan to help in developing that country. Dozens of
readers, including me, wished Quico the best of luck in his new tasks.
But he is back, at least as a guest contributor,
see:
http://caracaschronicles.com/2014/02/17/34988/ . The Krakatoa-like political eruption in
Venezuela took him (and many others) by surprise and he could not resist the
urge to comment. However, his message was not supportive of the protests, not
because he does not consider them justified but because, in his opinion, they
will eventually amount to nothing. As Juan Nagel would say, the money quote is:
“Middle class protests in middle class
areas on middle class themes by middle class people are not a challenge to the
chavista power system, they’re part of the chavista power system.
And he adds: “This is really
painful, but figuring it out is crucial. Chavismo doesn’t thrive despite
this type of protest, it thrives because of it.
It will break
your heart. It broke mine. But it’s important to see it clearly because,
tragically, some people never do piece it together”.
A reference to Leopoldo
Lopez, the leader of the protests.
In other words, Quico believes the protests are bound to
fail because they only represent a sector of the population, the middle class,
and are not supported by the poor, who live in the barrios. The protests would
be an elitist exercise, without real popular support. His advice to the
protesters would seem to be: go home and
keep quiet. Do not risk your lives unnecessarily. I have seen this type of
effort fail before.
I do not agree with this advice, although it represents a
sincere attempt at safeguarding the lives of our youth. But I think the advice
is based on wrong assumptions and, even if these assumptions were right, protests
would still be justified since the alternatives to submission are unthinkable.
I believe Quico’s assumption that the protests are
strictly a middle class affair is wrong. Students cut across social strata,
from the rich to the poor, all equally indignant about the Venezuelan tragedy.
And the parents of poor students are also poor and live in the areas of Caracas
where Quico says nothing much is taking place. I would say that the protests
are taking place in many cities, in middle class and poor sections of those
cities. One thing is apparent: there are no popular protests in favor of the regime.
But even if Quico was right about the social
identification of the protests as strictly middle class, to speak at this moment
in such a pessimistic manner is probably not the best thing to do, especially
if our words will not alter the course of events. Much of the country is in the
streets. Given this situation, it is very important that our best minds either
support the protesters or, if in doubt, refrain from discouraging them.
10 comentarios:
Sectores de "clase media" protestando:
http://alexismarreroc.com/esta-hora-petare-encendid/
Igual Caricuao, Catia y en el resto del país. Si bien la protesta la comienza la clase media, los sectores pobres, supercontrolados también sufren la sitación del país. Y de acuerdo con Ud.. Si solo fuese la clase media con su vanguardia de estudiantes, ya no hay razón para permanecer en espera de que nos terminen de colonizar y esclavizar.
I agree,and would add that based on talking with my family who live in barrios of Caracas, them a majority have been against the government for years.
Personally I think Quico and his followers are out of touch.
Me parece que los comentarios de Quico son absolutamente pertinentes y requieren difusión masiva, preferiblemebte en español para que lo puedan leer todos los estudiantes. No faltaba mucho para que la crisis económica terminara de generar protestas en los barrios, o las luchas dentro del chavismo se hicieran mas evidentes
Pero no, Lopez y su pandilla nos traen como propuesta "la salida", protestas en Chacao, marchas sin destino alguno (2002-2003 remake). Brillante! Ahora tenemos un chavismo unido, que puede ahora justificar la represión y, por qué no, la inflación y el desabastecimiento.
Acaso esperan un resultado distinto al de 2003? O usted, Sr Coronel, es de los que siempre ha pensado que el gobierno no cuenta con MAYORIA y ahora sí hay chance? No ha visto los resultados de la elección en diciembre? O es que nos robaron los votos otra vez?
Yo te aviso chirulí
La peor estupidez de los EEUU en el siglo XX fue de dejar en poder el tirano cubano. Hoy dia vemos el resultado de esta estupidez. El comunismo MATA otra vez. Es su solucion para todo. La matanza.
El tercer comentario podría tener razón si no fuese porque llevamos 15 años en una situación insoportable y la escasez y desabastecimiento no es de ayer, ya lleva varios meses. Los pobres están bajo vigilancia y parece que seguir sentados esperando a que reaccionen no parece la solución.
Entonces, cuando por fin bajen los cerros, igual saldrían a decir que la protesta es extemporánea
A eso súmele la invasión cubana. Es ya una cuestion de dignidad y superviviencia nacional
Cuando el gobierno controla las elecciones hasta las maquinas y los sitios, cuando cada persona que no vota por los Chavistas es identificada y pierde su trabajo, y cuando miles de MUERTOS votan por Chavez, como quieres decirme que las elecciones son honestas? Y que importa, de todos modos, cuando los Chavistas dicen que no van a acceptar los resultados si ellos pierden?
Una evaluacion muy cuidadosa de la mayoria de las manifestaciones de protesta que involucraron a significativo numero de personas a nivel global durante el siglo pasado y el presente, concluye en que solamente se requiere:
1) Manifestacion Civil=Pacifica
2) Constancia en la manifestacion de un 3.5% de la poblacion como minimo.
Las manifestaciones civiles han sido capaces de promover cambios de gobierno, ya que su capacidad de convocatoria siempre es mayor.
No olvidar que en los momentos mas criticos de la represion se presentan las obligatorias desobediencias por los organismos de seguridad (eventualmente, militares) no dispuestos a seguir atacando a sus ciudadanos. De igual manera, siempre hay elementos en el gobierno que se preguntan hasta que nivel estan comprometidos. La disension siempre existe aunque no se muestra hasta el momento propicio.
Con respecto a los grupos de choque "colectivos armados", hay que tener estrategias para limitar su capacidad de accion, haciendo sus desplazamientos en dos ruedas riesgosos.
Para entendernos en criollo: No hay vuelta atras: Todos saben que Chivo que se devuelve se esnuca.
Añado a la crítica sobre el tercer comentario: la inseguridad personal no es de ayer. Son cientos de miles asesinados en estos 15 tristísimos años. ¿Hay que seguir esperando? ¿Pa' cuando es la cosa?
Y siéntate a esperar los resultados de las "luchas dentro del chavismo". Es como si Churchill si hubiera puesto en esa mariquera con los nazis.
Though I understand Quico's disenchantment, I think his attitude reveals something else he has not seen--the psychological depression that results from years of the slow but persistent erosion of every aspect of Venezuelan life by the Chavistas.
While it is easy for anyone of honest and objective temperament to identify the failures of Chavismo at every level of civic responsibility, at the end of the day we are all left to explain its political success.
Contrary to the popular myth of mobilizing the numerous poor against the outnumbered rich propounded by Chavistas, their political success is very much about the promotion of divisions among their political opponents. And the demoralization of their opposition is a critical factor in that strategy.
The Chavistas can only win if their opposition gives up. Quico, who is obviously a very good man, is playing into their hands. It's understandable and we must sympathize with his broken heart.
But there can be no surrender. Chavismo must be fought at every turn.
His ignominious retreat
at the most awkward moment
when a NEW generation of
jovenes raise their hackles,
is but another sign of his
lack of judgement. xp
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